The Milwaukee Admirals are fresh off the back of a reverse sweep of the Texas Stars. The Grand Rapids Griffins haven’t played hockey for ten days. They are about to face off against each other in the Central Division Final for this year’s Calder Cup Playoffs. Will the Admirals keep the momentum going? Will the Griffins be victims of rust or beneficiaries of rest? Who will make it to the Western Division Championship?
Three Reasons The Admirals Advanced
Youth Movement
The star of the Admirals-Stars series for Milwaukee was rookie Zach L’Heureux, who had five goals in the series, all of them coming in the Admirals wins. He had back to back two goal games in Games 4 and 5, and is leading the team with nine points (tied for second in league scoring, tied for first in goals). He’s not doing it alone, either; the second and third leading scorers for Milwaukee are also rookies, Juuso Parssinen and Fedor Svechkov. The Admirals have some important veterans doing some heavy lifting (namely Troy Grosenick), but for the most part, it’s the kids getting it done for Milwaukee.
Special Teams Being Special
The Admirals power play has been brutally efficient in this series, scoring five power play goals in 16 attempts, good for third in the league, and tops for the eight remaining teams with a 31% success rate. After allowing only one PPG in four attempts against Manitoba, the Stars didn’t have an answer for the Admirals, as almost a quarter of Milwaukee’s goals came on the man advantage. Their penalty kill was shaky at times, but they were solid in all three wins, and added a shorthanded goal in Game 4. As they continue on in the playoffs, special teams will become more and more important, especially considering how poor the Griffins have been on both the PP and the PK (0/8 on the PP, 5/8 on the PK).
Bold Goaltending Change
Milwaukee Admirals Head Coach Karl Taylor made a tough choice after his team went down 2-0 to the Stars; sitting All Star goalie Yaroslav Askarov in favour of veteran Troy Grosenick. Grosenick would go 3-0 in the back half of the series, with a .920 sv%, and is currently fifth among goalies still in the playoffs. While the offence has been driven by the kids, Grosenick was a huge reason for getting the Admirals back into the series and ultimately winning, allowing only seven goals over those games, while Askarov allowed eight over his two starts.
Three Reasons the Griffins Advanced
Resiliency
It’s been a theme for the Griffins all season. From the early slump that had them at the bottom of the division in December to all the third period comebacks in the season, these Griffins don’t quit. They take your best shot and respond with one of their own. Grand Rapids took shot after shot from Rockford. They went down two goals in Game One on the road and won. They were challenged physically in Game Two and responded with heavy play of their own that turned the tide. They saw a 3-1 lead evaporate in just a minute in the third period in Game Three and won. They’ve been doing it all season but this postseason their never-say-die attitude has really shone when it mattered most.
Controlling The Pace
While not always indicative of how the games flow, the Griffins outshot the IceHogs in every game of their opening round series. One simple reason for this – they had the puck much more frequently than Rockford and with it were able to dictate the pace of the game for much of the series. More puck, more chances, more goals. It’s simple mathematics.
Johnny Burgers
All three of Jonatan Berggren’s goals in the opening series were game winners – two of those in overtime. You simply can’t teach clutch – some guys are just built for the moment. Berggren’s game elevated in those big moments, and as a result Grand Rapids is moving on while Rockford stays at home.
Regular Season Series Match-Up
Talk about evenly matched. Grand Rapids and Milwaukee saw each other eight times over the course of the regular season, with both teams coming out with matching 4-3-1 records over the course of the season series. Funny enough, it was the last two games of the series that went to overtime; a split with the home teams taking home the extra points.
Perhaps one of the biggest single-games for the Griffins this season came on February 25. The Griffins popped Milwaukee for a 4-2 victory, ending Milwaukee’s historic winning streak at 19 games at that time. After sweeping the Texas Stars to take control of second place in the division – a spot the Griffins wouldn’t give up all year – that victory had announced the Griffins’ arrival to the big boys’ table.
For the Griffins, the gritty Carter Mazur led the way offensively with five goals and eight points over seven games played in the season. Expect much of the same with his dogged spirit in the corners and in front of the net this series. Milwaukee’s Joakim Kemell paced his squad with five points.
In net, Grand Rapids’ Sebastian Cossa played some of his best hockey against the best competition in the division. He sported a .952 save percentage and a 1.47 GAA to go with a 3-0-1 record over Milwaukee. Conversely, Milwaukee’s Troy Groesnick has the Griffins’ number as well. His .949 percentage and 1.62 GAA to compliment a 2-0-1 record favors his chances to get the start in Game One in this series.
Admirals To Watch
Zach L’Heureux is leading the AHL in postseason goals, with five goals in five games. Even more impressive, he has only seven shots on goal, and is shooting at about 70%. This will almost certainly regress to the mean, but right now, he’s the hottest hand in the league, and he’s doing it all at the age of 20 (L’Heureux turns 21 today). His impressive rookie run for the Admirals just keeps on keeping on, and though the Griffins have excellent young players themselves, L’Heureux has dragged the Admirals to this series kicking and screaming, and shows no signs of slowing down.
The Robin to L’Heureux’s Batman is fellow rookie Juuso Parssinen, who has assisted on four of L’Heureux’s five goals, and is second on the team in scoring with six points in five games. He’s tied for fifth in league scoring, and fourth in assists. Add first year pro Fedor Svechkov, and the Admirals have a trio of youngsters that are a force to be reckoned with.
Leading the way defensively is Marc Del Gaizo, who has two goals in five games, and is tied for fourth in league scoring among defenders. In his fourth pro season and third with the Admirals, he’s approaching veteran status in the AHL, and is solid on both ends of the ice for Milwaukee. Not appearing in the goalscoring column is defenceman Adam Wilsby, who quietly has three assists in five games for the Admirals. Notably, he is leading the team in +/- with a +5 rating, when no one else on the team has higher than a +2.
Griffins To Watch
It’s hard not to start with Berggren. His playmaking skills have been on display since his arrival to Grand Rapids back in 2021. Combine that creative skill set with a desire to win and ability to produce in big moments, it’s no wonder why there’s a spotlight fixed on him this time of year. Heading into restricted free agency this summer, Berggren is out to make a case that he’s played his last games in Grand Rapids. For the Griffins to move on, he’s going to have to continue that trend.
Carter Mazur. Another Griffin at a point-per-game this postseason, Mazur is going to be a menace around the Milwaukee net. He’s going to be in the corners digging those pucks out to distribute to Czarnik and Berggren. Mazur’s been a junkyard dog for this team all season and his game is going to be needed for the Griffins to pull out this upset with a very heavy blue line in front of him protecting the Admirals’ net.
Simon Edvinsson. We are seeing the last of the sixth overall pick in 2021 in the AHL. The big defender is going to have his hands full with the forechecking prowess of the Admirals and the big bodies that they love to plant in front of the crease. Edvinsson is the kind of talent that for good reason doesn’t stick around long in this league. His long strides and big frame will be crucial to get quick exits out of the zone and into transition going the other way. The Admirals won’t be easy to shut down, and Edvinsson is going to have to take control from the back end for Grand Rapids to do so.
Biggest Storylines
Goaltending
How long a leash does Grosenick have for the Admirals? Askarov had two bad games back to back, and sat on the bench for the rest of the series. Grosenick has been very good for Milwaukee, but if he starts to falter, the Admirals will have to make another decision. Do they go back to Askarov and hope he regains the form he had in the regular season? Or do they try and ride it out with Grosenick. The Griffins goaltending has been ordinary, with Sebastian Cossa allowing 12 goals in four games and carrying a sv% of .880. If the Admirals can win the goaltending battle with either Grosenick or Askarov, signs point to success for them.
Power Play
The Griffins went 0/8 on the power play over their opening round victory. Their man advantage unit was struggling heading into the postseason and boy has it looked less than spectacular in the playoffs. There is too much talent on this Griffins roster for them to not just consistently go 0-for but to struggle as much as they have just to gain an entry. They could get away with it last round with their 5-on-5 dominance, but Milwaukee is deeper than Rockford and won’t let the Griffins control the puck as much. Grand Rapids has to take advantage of these opportunities when they present themselves or this will be a short series.
Bold Predictions
Jay: L’Heureux has back to back two goal games for Milwaukee. I think he takes the leap and scores his first postseason hat trick in this series on the way to a Griffins series victory in 5 games.
Andrew: This has all the makings of a long, grueling postseason series. It’s going to come down to whose goaltending shows up. Aside from a Game Two hiccup, Cossa’s been great for Grand Rapids. Milwaukee has two elite netminders to choose from in this one, with no indication of which one will get the nod in Game One. One bad game could decide it. It’s going five and it’s a coin flip, but Grand Rapids has already won two games on the road this postseason while Milwaukee has struggled away from home. Griffins in five.
