The 2024 race to the Calder Cup starts this week, and the Ontario Reign, though ending the regular season on a loss, will claim home ice advantage in their series match-up against the 6th seed Bakersfield Condors. In a fun twist, the two teams’ parent clubs (The LA Kings and the Edmonton Oilers) are also facing off in the first round of the NHL playoffs.
Ontario’s Road To The Playoffs
The Ontario Reign seem back to their winning ways, after last season’s disappointment saw them finish 6th in the Pacific and bounced unceremoniously in the first round of the playoffs by the Colorado Eagles. This year, the Reign finished 3rd in the Division, have home ice advantage in their first round series against Bakersfield, and have the AHL’s leading assist getter in Captain TJ Tynan.
The Reign finished the season with a record of 42-23-3-4, 91 points and a .632 pt%, only a single point behind second seed Tuscon. This is an 18 point jump from last season, and is much more in line with the Reign we’re used to seeing, like the team that finished behind only Stockton in the 2021-22 season. Their offence is monstrous, scoring the 10th most goals in the league, and adding a top 2 AHL power play clicking along at a rate of 21.8%. No one in the league scored more with the man advantage than Ontario, as almost a quarter of their goals came on the PP.
Where they do look beatable though, is on the PK, sitting at 23rd in the league, with 47 of their 198 goals allowed this year coming on the kill. The good news is that only four teams were shorthanded fewer times than Ontario, so they might be poor on the kill, but at least they aren’t in the box too often.
Captain TJ Tynan led the way for the Reign, as he has done since joining on Ontario in the 2021-22 season. He recorded 66 points, and his 57 assists were good for best in the AHL. This is the fourth time in his career he’s achieved this, an AHL record. This is the 6th straight year he’s led his team in scoring, going all the way back to his days in Chicago.
One of the question marks for the Reign this season was goaltending. They lost Matthew Villalta to Tuscon, Cal Petersen to Philadelphia, and Pheonix Copley to their parent club, the LA Kings. Luckily for them, Erik Portillo chose to sign there, and he’s carried the team for much of the season, finishing 6th in save percentage among all goalies, and fourth among rookie goalies. He was the only goalie to play more than 16 games for the Reign this season, and finished with a 24-11-3 record.
Bakersfield’s Road To The Playoffs
If nothing else, the Bakersfield Condors are models of consistency. Last season, they were 5th in the Division, with a pt% of .542. This season, 6th in the Division with a pt% of .583. While the teams around them bounced up and down the standings from last season to this season, the Condors stayed pretty much where they are. The bad news is that where they are is facing a hot Reign team with home ice advantage.
The Condors ended up with 84 points this season, and a record of 39-27-4-2. This would have been good enough for 4th in the Central or North Divisions, and 5th in the Atlantic. Instead, they are in the Pacific, and therefore the 6th seed. The only way they can gain home ice advantage is if Calgary defeats first Tuscon, then Coachella Valley to face the Condors in the Division final, but to do that, the Condors would have to go through the Reign, and then the winner of Colorado/Abbotsford. Lofty goals, but never say never in the AHL playoffs.
Like Ontario, the Condors’ power play is red hot, second only to the Reign themselves in the Division. Their penalty kill, also like Ontario, is in the bottom third of the league. The difference is that the Condors take far more penalties than the Reign do. This could be a match-up decided on the man advantage. 51 of Bakersfield’s 223 goals came on the PP. 52 of their 202 allowed came on the kill. Bakersfield are an excellent defensive team; only 6 teams in the AHL allowed fewer goals this season. The bad news is that Ontario is one of them.
Bakersfield’s top scorer, Seth Griffith, finished 9th in the AHL, with 63 points in 68 games. He finished with a full 11 points more than second place on his team, Lane Pederson. Raphael Lavoie, their AHL All Star representative, led the team in goals with 28. In goal, they’ll be rolling with possibly the highest paid goalie in the AHL in Jack Campbell, who after a shaky start to his season, settled in nicely and has a .918 sv% and a record of 18-13-1, as well as Olivier Rodrigue, who takes the edge in games played, but has slightly poorer stats (.916 sv%, 19-12-5 record). Either goalie would be a fine option to start in game 1.
Season Series: How Do These Teams Match Up?
Ontario takes the edge in the season series, winning 5 of the 8 match-ups. However, it’s worth noting that all of Ontario’s wins were by a single goal (three 4-3 victories, a 2-1 win and a 3-2 win). All of Bakersfield’s victorys (4-0, 6-2, 6-4) have been by multiple goals. Jack Campbell leads goalies with a .918 over four games, has all of Bakersfield’s wins, plus a shutout. Five different players registered 6 points in the season series: Ben Gleason (BAK), Tyler Madden (ONT) and Akil Thomas (ONT), Brandt Clarke (ONT) and Philip Broberg (BAK).
Previous Match Ups This Season
Ontario 4 @ Bakersfield 3 (Apr 17 2024) Final OT
Bakersfield 3 @ Ontario 4 (Mar 30 2024) Final
Bakersfield 3 @ Ontario 4 (Mar 24 2024) Final
Ontario 0 @ Bakersfield 4 (Mar 16 2024) Final
Bakersfield 6 @ Ontario 2 (Jan 21 2024) Final
Ontario 2 @ Bakersfield 1 (Dec 9 2023) Final
Bakersfield 6 @ Ontario 4 (Dec 8 2023) Final
Ontario 3 @ Bakersfield 2 (Oct 21 2023) Final
Reign To Watch
Tynan is the X-factor for the Reign, there’s no way around it. In 51 playoff games, he has 28 points, including 23 assists. Don’t sleep on Samuel Fagemo, though. Fagemo finished the regular season with 43 goals, one shy of Adam Gaudette, the leading goalscorer. If I’m head coach Marco Sturm, I’m gluing those two players together and watching them make the Condors miserable for 2-3 games. Ontario also has one of the best defencemen in the league this season in Brandt Clarke, who was their AHL All Star representative this February. He tied for fourth in scoring among defencemen this season with 46 points in only 50 games, and he did that as a 20 year old rookie.
A possible unsung hero for the Reign is Charles Hudon, a recent addition to Ontario by way of Colorado. He had 54 points in 52 games for the Reign this season, and was one of only three Reign to hit 20 goals this season. He has 9 points in 15 career playoff games.
Condors To Watch
The Condors have plenty of firepower up front. Their X-factor has to be Lavoie, who scored 28 goals and hit 50 points in only his fourth AHL season. He has 5 career playoff points in 8 games, including 2 goals.
The Condors take the edge in goaltending, simply because they have two solid starting goalies. Portillo, as good as he’s been for the Reign, doesn’t have a reliable back-up that’s as good as he is. Between Campbell and Rodrigue, the Condors might have one of the more reliable one-two punches in the Pacific playoff picture.
Bold Predictions
Reign Bold Prediction: TJ Tynan has more assists in the series than any other player has points.
Condors Bold Prediction: Lavoie scores a hat trick in game 1.
Series Prediction: Reign in 2, but both wins are 1 goal games.
