The second round of the AHL Playoffs is upon us, and the first series to get started is in the North Division, as the Rochester Americans and the Syracuse Crunch face off tonight in upstate New York.
How did they get here? Who are the players to watch? What will be the difference makers? In a series where the two teams are both close in seeding and physical distance, it comes down to something you might not expect.
Rochester’s Road To The Playoffs
The Rochester Americans had a slow start to their season but as the games went along, they were able to turn it around. According to Amerks Head Coach Seth Appert, the defense has grown over the season and that is what helped lead to the improved play.
The Amerks finished the season with an 8-1-1-0 record in their last 10 games and a point streak of 3-0-1-0. In the 2023-24 season overall, Rochester finished second in the North Division with a 39-23-7-3 record and 88 points. They had only one point on the Syracuse Crunch, whom they will face in their first matchup of the 2024 Calder Cup Playoffs.
Rochester was led by the four-headed monster of Mason Jobst, Isak Rosen, Jiri Kulich, and Brandon Biro. Rosen and Kulich were selected for the 2024 AHL All-Star Classic for the North Division. Rosen was tied for the team lead in points with Jobst with 50, followed by Kulich (45) and Biro (43). Kulich led the team in goals with 27 followed by Jobst (22), and Rosen (20). Rosen was also second on the team in assists with 30, one behind Lukas Rousek (31).
In terms of the defense as a whole, Jeremy Davies and Zach Metsa led the way for the Amerks when it came to shutting down opponents and building that group as the season went on. Davies led the defense in points (35), with Metsa at 24. One name to keep in mind is the rookie Nikita Novikov who had a plus-20 in 65 games along with tallying 20 assists and 23 points over that span.
The thing that the Amerks will also need to lean on is how they will work with the goalie room. For Rochester, it will come down to whether they will ride Devon Levi throughout the playoff or go for a 1A/1B with Dustin Tokarski; maybe see if they add Michael Houser to the mix. Levi finished the season with a 16-6-4 record with a .927 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.42 goals against goals against average (GAA). That is impressive for Levi despite being bounced back and forth from Rochester and the Buffalo Sabres. If Levi can keep up the run he was on at the end of the season, it’ll make the series interesting for the Amerks. On the flip side, Tokarski played well for them as well, finishing the regular season with an 11-9-3 record and a .890 SV% plus a 3.32 GAA.
Syracuse’s Road To The Playoffs
Syracuse is coming off a strong regular-season run, with a record of 39-24-4-5. They ended third in the North Division and sixth in the Eastern Conference, a testament to the strength of the North Division.
They were led this season by Gage Goncalves, who finished 18th in league scoring. Goncalves was the undisputed MVP for the Crunch, having almost 20 points on the second-place scorer for his team (Cole Koepke), and was rewarded with a trip to the All-Star Classic in February.
Goaltending was a balanced affair for the Crunch, with Matt Tomkins and Hugo Alnefelt splitting the net down the middle. Tomkins finished with a 15-12-2 record and a .904%, and Alnefelt had a 14-8-4 record with an .890 sv%
When looking at special teams for Syracuse, they were first in the North Division with a percentage of 19.4% and came in second in the Eastern Conference behind only the Hershey Bears. Their penalty kill comes in fifth in the conference with 83.9% and third in the division behind the Utica Comets and Toronto Marlies. It’s fair to say that special teams will be important for this team at the beginning of the postseason, as no team in the North has a better PP, and the only team with a better PK that made the playoffs is Toronto, who is on the brink of elimination against Belleville.
How Do These Teams Match Up?
When it comes to the regular season series results between both Syracuse and Rochester, the Crunch came in on top at 7-2-2-1. In the 13-game season series, five games have gone past regulation, accounting for 2 of the Crunch’s wins and 3 of the Americans’. Syracuse has only won twice at home against Rochester during the regular season. Most wins by both teams are on the road. In a short series like this, being able to win at home is paramount.
Goncalves is the leading scorer in the season series, with 11 of his points this season coming in the series.
Rochester 2 @ Syracuse 0 (Mar 27 2024) Final
Rochester 3 @ Syracuse 2 (Mar 13 2024) Final
Rochester 2 @ Syracuse 4 (Mar 9 2024) Final
Syracuse 3 @ Rochester 4 (Mar 8 2024) Final OT
Syracuse 5 @ Rochester 2 (Feb 28 2024) Final
Rochester 2 @ Syracuse 3 (Feb 10 2024) Final OT
Syracuse 3 @ Rochester 2 (Feb 9 2024) Final OT
Syracuse 2 @ Rochester 1 (Jan 31 2024) Final
Syracuse 3 @ Rochester 1 (Dec 27 2023) Final
Rochester 3 @ Syracuse 2 (Dec 23 2023) Final OT
Rochester 5 @ Syracuse 4 (Nov 4 2023) Final SO
Syracuse 7 @ Rochester 2 (Nov 1 2023) Final
Biggest Storylines
Does Home Ice Advantage Matter?
When it comes to the Americans and the Crunch as a whole, they are better at winning on the road compared to being at home against each other. The Amerks at home versus the Crunch are 9-12-6-1 over the past five seasons. However, they’re 17-10-2-0 in Syracuse. For how close these two teams were over the season, if either team cannot win at their arenas, does home-ice advantage even matter? Overall, for the 2023-24 season, the Amerks were 5-5-2-0 against the Crunch. While having the almost .500 record along with the home and road splits, this series could be interesting based on who can steal a win at home, which is something you don’t see much of in hockey.
Early Leads Equals More Wins
Overall, for the 2023-24 season, the Americans were a team that shut down opponents when leading after the first and second periods. The Americans had a record of 20-5-2-1 when leading after the first period this season. Furthermore, they were even formidable to their opponents when leading after the second period. Their record when leading after 40 minutes was 25-0-1-1, essentially locking it in and all but securing a win for Rochester. If they can keep the Crunch (22-2-1-0 leading after two periods) behind them after 40 minutes, the Amerks should be able to steal some games no matter if on the road or at home.
Hole In The Blue Line
A big storyline for Syracuse is the huge hole at the blue line left by the NHL Trade Deadline when Jack Thompson was traded to the San Jose Sharks organization for Anthony Duclair and a 2025 7th-round pick. During Thompson’s time with Syracuse, he tallied 13 goals with 43 assists over the course of 118 games. To find success in this series, the Crunch are going to dig deep to find a replacement for Thompson on both sides of the puck. The Crunch is also missing recently called up Max Crozier. He has skated in a total of 49 games and gathered a total of 4 goals and 17 assists.
Players To Watch
Ethan Prow is playing in his third consecutive postseason appearance with Rochester. He could be an underrated player to keep an eye on with how much playoff experience he has in his career. Overall, in his career, he is second on the team in postseason points for a defenceman with 13 across 31 games and an eye-opening 4 PIMs over five different playoff appearances. Prow is someone who stays in his lane and, on a nightly basis, does what he is supposed to do. If you’re looking for an NHL player comparison for someone who can play shutdown defense and do “Prow Things,” you can look at Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Jaccob Slavin.
Michael Mersch has been having a solid season as the captain for the Amerks. He finished the season with 23 assists and 38 points in 66 games. Mersch is someone who is a constant rock as the leader of the team, especially after the slow start they had to the season. Appert and the staff appreciate having him lead the way with the young forwards and setting the example with those guys and a young team overall. If he can keep their heads level and stick to what’s been working over the last 30 games, they could have a chance to make some noise in the series and the playoffs.
Forward Gage Goncalves is leading the Crunch in points with 13 goals and 45 assists. He has played in 212 games for the Crunch and accumulated 43 goals and 102 assists over the span of those games. Gabriel Dumont, Cole Koepke, Mitchell Chaffey, and Emil Lilleberg are all very good on the special teams, especially with Dumont and Chaffey being used on both the power play and penalty kill.
Predictions
Zach Martin: When predicting the series, it is hard to say who could take the series based on their head-to-head matchup throughout the 2023-24 season. Over the last five seasons in general both teams have trouble winning at home but are considered road warriors. Whoever decides to win one at home and keep their winning ways on the road in check, could be the deciding factor. If the Amerks can keep up their hot finish to the season when this series rolls around, they can make a case to win this matchup. I predict the Americans in 5.
Sam Wismer: It will be a hard battle between both teams due to them being even strength all season with each other. If Syracuse sticks to their heavier and stronger game, they could overtake the series. With these two teams, you are very easily looking at 5 games due to their records all season. Both teams are very good road teams, but when on home ice, they are flat. Syracuse takes the series in 5 games.
