For the American Hockey League’s North Division, the final playoff spot and seedings came down to the final days of the 2023-24 regular season. When the dust settled, the Belleville Senators emerged as the division’s fourth seed, edging out the fifth-seeded Toronto Marlies.
Taking the last two playoff spots in the North, the Senators and Marlies will face off in a best-of-three play-in round. Despite the lower seeding, Toronto has the home-ice advantage for the series.
Belleville Senators Season Recap
A pesky, never-say-die Senators squad is the Cinderella story in the North Division. As expected from hockey at any level, a rash of injuries kept the team from fully realizing its full potential. In early December, their injury report included six players, including Philippe Daoust and Boko Imama. Luckily, that was down from the seven back in November.
Some positives surrounded the struggles. This included an impressive seven-game winning streak in December and January, which launched Belleville to third in the division.
Towards the end of the season, Belleville found themselves locked in a battle to secure the final North Division playoff spot. Becoming the last team in the league to secure a spot might be concerning. However, the Senators went on an 8-2-0-0 streak in the last ten games of the season to seal the deal.
Toronto Marlies Season Recap
A last-minute surge by the Cleveland Monsters forced the Marlies into losses for the last two games of the season. This allowed the Senators to sneak up, claiming the higher seed for the playoffs. The Marlies have struggled as of late, dropping six of their last 10, and are on a three-game losing streak.
But it wasn’t all bad news for the Marlies in the 2023-24 season. Alex Steeves put together a 16-game point streak from October 22 through December 27, 2023. In that span, Steeves tallied 11 goals and 11 assists for 22 points. And who can forget the four-goal night for rookie Ryan Tverberg back on January 12 against the Sens?
One of the bright spots was the emergence of goaltender Dennis Hildeby. His 21 wins set a franchise record for wins in a single season by a rookie goaltender.
Regular Season Series
You will probably be hard-pressed to find a playoff matchup against two teams that know each other as much as the Sens and Marlies. The AHL version of the “Battle of Ontario” is the culmination of a ten-game regular season series. However, Belleville had a slight advantage, putting up a 6-3-0-1 record against the Marlies.
Belleville has a slight home advantage, winning three games within the confines of CAA Arena. In those games, Toronto lost twice in regulation and once in overtime. The Marlies took away two wins in Belleville.
Conversely, Toronto only won twice against the Sens in the Coca-Cola Coliseum. Belleville’s losses there both came in regulation and their wins were in overtime.
Egor Sokolov leads the Senators against the Marlies in the season series, tallying 12 points (three goals and nine assists) across 10 games.
For Toronto, that nod goes to Kyle Clifford and Topi Niemela, each with two goals and six assists, good for eight points.
Belleville Senators Storylines and Players to Watch
Bruce Garrioch with the Ottawa Sun reports that Ottawa Senators’ associate general manager, Ryan Bowness, met with players and staff during a team dinner Monday to share one main message: the job is far from done. Getting an extra vote of confidence and insights from your own GM and someone entrenched within the NHL parent club at this point has to be a bit of a morale booster.
There are several players to watch out for, but my picks are going to Jamieson Rees and Mads Sogaard.
Rees is a proven veteran with a Calder Cup under his belt with the 2022 Chicago Wolves. This hasn’t been an easy year for him, with stints with the Springfield Thunderbirds, Charlotte Checkers, and now Belleville. He is looking to redeem himself and prove that he is still the 42-point player he was in the 2022-23 season.
After the Chicago Wolves went independent last summer, Rees has gone from top-line minutes in Chicago and has fallen to fourth-line or healthy scratch status.
Expect Rees to bring a healthy work ethic and open up space for his linemates.
Looking at Sogaard, he has the eyes of the organization square on his back. This best-of-three playoff series is his first AHL post-season action in his pro career. The organization likely sees this as a huge step in his development, hoping he can backstop an inexperienced playoff team to a long run. Sogaard’s 2.45 goals against average is good for 10th in the league but follows Toronto goaltender Hildeby’s 2.41.
Sogaard wants to impress, heading towards a bid to make a jump to the NHL next season.
One storyline to follow is the status of Angus Crookshank. He was assigned to Belleville on April 22nd. Perhaps this means he’s healthy and cleared to play. If he slots in for game one is yet to be announced. Having Crookshank in the lineup reunites the team with their club’s leader in goals, with 24 over 50 games.
Toronto Marlies Storylines and Players to Watch
Toronto has a decisive advantage over the Senators in one key area: experience.
The key storyline is how Toronto deals with the pressure of a three-game series and tries to redeem last year’s second-round sweep at the hands of the Rochester Americans. From the 2011-12 season up through 2018-19, the Marlies didn’t miss a single playoff, winning it all in 2018.
Toronto has seen multiple players put up impressive individual performances all season long. With Joseph Blandisi, Logan Shaw, Nick Abruzzese, and Steeves all surpassing 50 points, we know this team can score. They led the North Division in goals for during the regular season with 249. Though, Belleville will prove to be a formidable opponent.
Why is that? Bellevills has scratched and crawled their way against a never-say-die Laval Rocket to claim the last playoff spot in the North. Meanwhile, Toronto went 4-5-1 to finish the season. In order to take the series, Toronto needs all of their best players to get (and stay) hot at the same time.
The Marlies can’t afford to start late. Get the wheels going on time and let the heavy experience of players like Clifford guide this team.
Defensively, look for Max Lajoie and Cameron Gaunce to bring their combined 68 games of Calder Cup Playoff experience to the rink. Their presence should calm Hildeby, who has never started a playoff game.
Bold Prediction: Belleville Senators vs. Toronto Marlies
This series turns into an offensive outbreak. The inexperience of the netminders in the postseason, coupled with the offensive power of both teams, leads to high-scoring games.
Belleville’s winning ways continue and wins the series in three. Toronto comes close but can’t fully overcome their recent slump.
Series Schedule
The series gets underway from the Coca-Cola Coliseum on Wednesday, April 24, with a 7:00 PM EST puck drop. Game Two is slated for a 7:00 PM EST start time in Belleville on Friday, April 26. If necessary, Game Three is a 3:00 PM EST start on Sunday, April 28.
The winner of this series will face the division champion Cleveland Monsters in the North Division Semifinals.
