When the smoke finally settled in the chaotic Pacific Division race, the middle seeds at 4 and 5 were occupied by two teams as equal as it gets. The Colorado Eagles and Abbotsford Canucks finished the season with identical 40-25-5-2 records, with home ice going to Colorado by virtue of the regulation wins tiebreaker. It’s a cruel fate for Abbotsford to enter this series without having a home game in the series, but that’s the nature of the AHL playoffs.
After hovering near the top of the division just about all year, late-season pushes by Tucson and Ontario pushed the Eagles into the middle of the Pacific. Abbotsford, on the other hand, finished the season on a hot 8-1-1 streak and is playing some fantastic hockey heading into this series. With two such evenly matched teams playing a best-of-three series, the margin of error is paper-thin as we kick off the Calder Cup Playoffs.
Season Series
Think the two sides weren’t even enough? Think again. In the eight-game series this season, each team recorded four wins (with Colorado getting the slight edge in points with two OT losses). The teams traded two-win sets from the beginning of the series all the way to the end in a two-step dance that’s led them to this point.
Colorado’s Tanner Kero led the way for the Eagles. His five goals and eight points paced the team in both categories. For the Canucks, the usual suspect Linus Karlsson matched Kero’s eight point production as the only two point per game scorers in the season series for either team. Expect some fireworks in this short-lived but heated series, as Colorado sports the second-highest PIM totals in the Pacific with Keaton Middleton leading the way. Abbotsford will be countering with Jett Woo, whose 30 PIMs marked the most in the eight-game series. With every advantage needed at every angle, expect both teams to get involved physically to take command of the play early – as they had done all year.
Whose Net Is It Anyway?
Both teams are seeing their parent clubs in the NHL playoffs, and with it comes the regular dredging of the top of the AHL rosters. Two players added for postseason depth are Abbotsford’s Arturs Silovs and Colorado’s Ivan Prosvetov. Abbotsford also features rookie netminder Nikita Tolopilo in its crease, and as such the loss of Silovs doesn’t hurt as much. Tolopilo won 20 games with a .905 save percentage in his rookie season. Tolopilo played perhaps his best hockey against Colorado – sporting a 2-2 record against these very Eagles sporting a sparking 0.937% over the four appearances.
However – it was announced on Tuesday that Vancouver’s star netminder Thatcher Demko would be missing potentially the entire first round series. Do they make another call to Abbotsford to get another body in there? The situation is very fluid in the net.
For Colorado, the situation isn’t much better. The Eagles have ran a platoon in net all season with four goaltenders playing at least 12 games. The recent assignee Arvid Holm appears to lead the way, but rookie Trent Miner does sport the best goals against on average (2.10) and save percentage (.930%). These numbers even eclipse Prosvetov and Justus Annunen – both of whom have seen playing time with the Colorado Avalanche this season. Miner, however, hasn’t started a game for the Eagles in over a month. The only other options on the roster for Colorado were just brought in on ATOs. If either Jacob Barczewski or Dante Giannuzzi end up in the Colorado crease, the Eagles might end up flying the white flag.
Breakthrough
When it comes to special teams, you’ll be hard-pressed to find better penalty killers than the ones in Abbotsford or Colorado. The Canucks rank first in the division in penalty killing – third in the league. Colorado is right behind them at fourth in the AHL. Both teams also end up in the bottom 10 of power play units, meaning goals are going to be at a premium in this series, especially with the man advantage.
While Karlsson is Abbotsford’s biggest threat, don’t sleep on Arshdeep Bains, Sheldon Dries, or Aatu Raty. All four have broken the fifty-point mark for the Canucks. Meanwhile, Colorado’s leading scorer – powerplay quarterback Brad Hunt – was called up to the Avalanche for the aforementioned playoff depth. The Eagles are going to have to find a way to slow the Canucks down and strike when their chances come. The Canucks, meanwhile, are going to have to find a way to clear the net with 6’6 Riley Tufte providing all the net-front chaos for the Eagles.
Abbotsford should also keep an eye out for Nikolai Kovalenko. The Canucks have yet to see this skilled forward since he came over to North America from the KHL. Kovalenko put up 89 points over the last two seasons with Nizhny Novgorod Torpedo. With three points in four late-season appearances, Kovalenko could be the shot in the arm the Eagles offense needs to break out.
Bold Prediction
Mistakes in a best-of-three series are absolute killers. Abbotsford is the hotter team coming into this one. They have the better power play and they put more pucks in the net. If they could have been given one home game to feed off the frenzied crowd in British Columbia, maybe this one has a different outlook. Colorado, however, knows how to shut it down when they need to. They have the home crowd at their back at a raucous Blue Arena in Loveland fueled by the Voodoo Ranger Lounge that is one of a kind in this league. The Eagles will feed off that atmosphere and it will be Kovalenko providing the Game 3 overtime winner.
Eagles in Three
