The Milwaukee Admirals have had a good long rest to study up on their next opponent. The Texas Stars cruised past the Manitoba Moose to send them to an early summer. But, as one starts their march towards the Calder Cup, and one hopes to continue their push, how do these two teams face off against each other?
Milwaukee’s Road To The Playoffs
Central Division regular season champions, the Milwaukee Admirals finished third in the entire NHL, with a record of 47-22-2-1 and 97 points. In a division where many teams fell off in the back half of the season, they took advantage and kept climbing to take that top spot with time to spare. The Admirals were one of the biggest stories of the regular season. Of their 47 wins on the season (good for second in the league), an incredible 19 of those were won back to back from January 5 through to February 24. This carried them all the way up the Central Division standings to take the Division title with a full 11 points more than second place.
Perhaps even more impressive than that is their goaltender, Yaroslav Askarov, who finished second in the league in wins with 30 (a record of 30-13-1), and who went over two months without losing a game from December 23 to February 25. Askarov, a worthy AHL All Star representative for Milwaukee, was certainly their MVP this year. Their team scoring was done by committee, with their leading scorer, Egor Afanasyev, coming in at 54 points in 56 games, as well as three more players hitting the 40pt mark in the regular season.
Coming into the postseason with points in eight of their last 10 games, Milwaukee is one of the hotter teams in the postseason, but they’ve been out of action since the regular season finished on April 21. Are they rested or rusty? Only time will tell.
Three Reasons Texas beat Manitoba
Most Valuable Bourque
Mavrik Bourque flexed his offensive muscle in Game One in an effort that absolutely blew the doors down to open up the series. His two goal, two assist performance on the night he was announced AHL MVP powered Texas over the Moose to start the series. While he remained off the score sheet in Game Two, that kind of star power (pun intended) was unable to be matched by Manitoba.
Shots To The Outside
In Game Two, Manitoba threw everything including the kitchen sink at goaltender Remi Poirier. 41 shots, 41 saves for the sixth-round pick in 2020. While the numbers appear jaw dropping – and Porier had to make some big stops – Texas did a great job of limiting the quality chances. Porier saw a lot of those shots from the perimeter and the defense did a good job keeping the big Moose forwards out of the lanes. As a result, Poirier’s job was made much easier without having to track through screens or deal with deflected pucks.
Special Teams, Special Players
In the deciding Game Two, Texas struck 2/2 on the power play. On the flip side, their PK unit, which had struggled all season long, was able to shut the door on Manitoba’s power play. Keeping it clean while playing five-on-five, special teams ended up being the difference in a 2-0 final to sweep Manitoba.
Regular Season Series Matchup
Texas and Milwaukee met eight times over the course of the regular season. The Admirals edged the Stars with a 5-3 record in the series, with two of those victories requiring extra time.
The Stars’ leading scorer in the season series, Logan Stankoven, is helping a different kind of Stars playoff run up in Dallas. Stankoven put up six goals and three assists in six appearances against the Admirals. Matej Blumel provided another four goals and four assists while Bourque added six points. Porier – expected to start again with Matthew Murray on recall to Dallas – had no wins in three appearances versus Milwaukee.
For Milwaukee, Egor Afanasyev and Tye Felhaber led the way offensively with six points each. Noted on the scoresheet as always is Zach L’Heureux, and not just with his offense. On top of 5 points, L’Heureux notched a staggering 41 penalty minutes over the eight-game series. Expect him to be his usual pesky self around the Texas net in this series as well.
Another stat of note – both Troy Groesnick and Yaroslav Askarov featured sub-.900 save percentages against the Stars. Despite being a top-three tandem in goals allowed, the Admirals’ netminders still struggled against Texas during the season.
Biggest Storylines
Bourque. Texas has several offensive weapons to watch out for, including Blumel and the net-front presence of Fredrik Karlstrom and his two power play goals in the opening round series. Milwaukee is going to have to keep it tight on Bourque, though, as the Stars’ offense rides or dies through him.
L’Heureux. His game is tailor-made for postseason play, but will the antics land him and Milwaukee in penalty trouble? It’s one thing to get physical and in the other team’s head. It’s another to put the league’s leading scorer and #1 PP unit on the advantage with ample opportunity to strike. The Admirals’ rookie is an X-factor in this series, and it could swing for one side or the other in a heartbeat.
Admirals To Watch
It’s going to be a goalie match-up for the ages in this series, as the composed sophomore Remy Poirier will be matching up against heartburn-inducing Yaroslav Askarov. Askarov is one of the more fun goalies in the AHL to watch, with a sky-high ceiling, but can he keep up that high octane play in the postseason? He finished the regular season with a .911 sv%, but I think there’s another level to his game that can be reached in this postseason.
Leading scorer Egor Afanasyev had a breakout season for the Admirals this year, beating his old career high of 33 points in 74 games easily. In only his third season with the Admirals, Afanasyev led the team in goals, points and shots, and looks primed to haver a big postseason for Milwaukee.
Rookie Joakim Kemell had a perfectly respectable season for the Admirals, finishing fourth on the team in scoring with 41 points in 67 games, tied for 11th in league scoring among rookies. Between him and Zach L’Heureux (second in team scoring, fifth in AHL rookie scoring), the Admirals young guns are ready to go off in a big way.
Stars To Watch
Christian Kyrou. With Derrick Pouliot up in the press box in Dallas, Kyrou was given an opportunity against Manitoba and shone with it. Now the #1 defenseman quarterbacking a lethal power play, he’s going to be counted on even more for an upset-minded Stars team.
Remi Porier. After an excellent opening round, Porier will likely be dueling with Askarov on the other side. The resume speaks for itself for the Milwaukee netminder and his blue chip acumen. Porier is the Rocky to Askarov’s imposing Apollo Creed. Sixth rounder versus first rounder. Whatever comparison to be made – Porier is going to have to match Askarov save-for-save for Texas to pull off the upset.
Alex Petrovic. Remember what I said about Texas’ defense clearing the front of the net against Manitoba? They’re going to have to do that and more with a heavy Milwaukee side featuring L’Heureux and the 6’4 Afanasyev bearing down on the crease. Petrovic is a physical, veteran presence in front of the net and he’s going to have his work cut out for him. The Stars’ ability to keep Porier’s lanes clean will determine where they can take this series.
Predictions
Andrew: Milwaukee punished Texas last postseason on the strength of its forecheck. Despite different personnel up front for the Admirals, the mindset remains the same with their forwards choking the boards and the front of the net. Texas has the big gun in Bourque but Milwaukee has Askarov and the structure to support him. Milwaukee in 4.
Jay: Texas are hot, but Milwaukee had their number in the regular season. I predict at least one blow-out game in either direction, but for the most part, the goalies will lock things down. Milwaukee in 4, with at least one overtime win.
The Milwaukee Admirals and the Texas Stars face off for Game 1 of their best of 5 series tonight, Thursday May 2, in Texas. The game starts at 7pm CT.
