It’s a tale of two first round series’, as the Ontario Reign strolled past the Bakersfield Condors in two games and the Abbotsford Canucks had to grit their teeth to beat the Colorado Eagles in overtime of Game 3, but how do these teams match up against each other as two of the final 16 teams racing to the Calder Cup? Let’s find out.
Three Reasons Ontario Beat Bakersfield
Goaltending
Sometimes teams live and die by their goaltending. The Ontario Reign were top ten in league scoring in the regular season, so they’re no slouches offensively, but only five teams in the AHL allowed fewer goals than them this season, and they had the sixth best goalie in the league in Erik Portillo. The rookie goalie finished the regular season with a save percentage of .918, and was tied for 5th in wins. He kept this up in the postseason, going 2-0 against the Bakersfield Condors, and allowing only two goals total on 55 shots. The only goaltender to perform better is last season’s MVP and goalie of the year, Dustin Wolf, who had a .966 through two games against the Tuscon Roadrunners. Portillo outperformed another talented youngster in Olivier Rodrigue, and an experienced veteran in Jack Campbell, and sent both of them to an early summer.
Depth
It goes without saying that to win in the playoffs you need your stars to be Stars. The Reign’s stars were quiet in the first round, with one point apiece going to their top line of TJ Tynan, Samuel Fagemo and Alex Turcotte. It happens, but when it does, you have to hope that the depth steps up. For Ontario, it did in a big way, with Tyler Madden scoring three goals in two games, and snagging both game winners. Young defensive star Brandt Clarke added two points in two games, and when you add that to shutting down Bakersfield’s stars AND depth (their leading scorer of the regular season, Seth Griffith had 1G 1A, and leading goalscorer Raphael was Lavoie held to just 1A), it’s a recipe for success.
5 on 5
The Ontario Reign’s power play picked an inopportune time to go cold, as they went 0 for 5 in Game 2 of the series, and only 2 for 12 over two games. The penalty kill was a weak point heading into the playoffs, and something to monitor. They killed off 7 of 9 attempts, but scored a shorthanded goal in the mix as well. Where the Reign really shone this series was at 5 on 5, outscoring Bakersfield 5-0 at even strength. As they play more games, the special teams will likely even out, but if they can keep their 5 on 5 play rolling, they’ll be a tough matchup for almost every team in their Division.
Three Reasons Abbotsford Beat Colorado
Star Power
Arshdeep Bains was second in scoring on the Abbotsford Canucks this season, was named their AHL All Star representative, made his NHL debut as a hometowon kid (Bains is a native of Surrey, BC), and has arguably been Abbotsford’s MVP this season. They needed him to be big in this series against Colorado, and he showed up. Bains registered two goals and two assists in three games against the Eagles, but he wasn’t the only one. Tristen Nielsen had four assists in the series, and leading scorer Linus Karlsson had two goals.
Whose Goal Is It Anyway?
At the beginning of the postseason, it was Arturs Silovs goal to lose. After an injury to Thatcher Demko, the starting goalie for Abbotsford’s parent team, the Vancouver Canucks, he was recalled as emergency back-up, and the team turned to Nikita Tolopilo. Another injury in Vancouver, this time to Casey DeSmith, and suddenly, Zach Sawchenko is the starting goalie for the Canucks. Going into the series, he had good results in a small sample size, going 4-1-0 in 6 games with a .924 sv%. He was nothing short of electric in Game 3, making 47 of 48 saves, and he was excellent all season under a barrage of shots. Only one goalie (Dylan Garand of the Hartford Wolf Pack with 111) faced more shots than Sawchenko, who faced 107 shots and saved 99 of them.
Puck Luck
Sometimes, you get lucky, and that’s not a bad thing. Deep cup runs are built on luck. The Canucks won Game 3 in overtime, and were one goal away from a win in Game 2, until the Eagles’ captain Brad Hunt scored the GWG for Colorado. Of the Canucks’ 40 regular season wins, 11 of them came past regulation, and the lost only five games in overtime and a further two in the shootout (the puck-luckiest way to win or lose a game). All the Canucks (or any team) have to do is get to overtime, and the field resets. First goal wins, and the Canucks have been pretty good at that this season.
Regular Season Series Matchup
On paper, the Reign and the Canucks look pretty evenly matched. Their regular season series match-up had the Reign just squeaking by with the better record. Abbotsford went 4-4-0-0 against Ontario this season, but one of those wins was in the shootout, giving the Reign an extra point and a 4-3-0-1 record. Ontario has been the victor in the two most recent games against the Canucks, and has a three game point streak going into the series. Interestingly, in the six game season series, the home team has won six times. With the series starting in Ontario for the first two games and then moving to Abbotsford for the final three (if necessary), will that be a factor?
Abbotsford 3 @ Ontario 5 (Mar 6 2024) Final
Abbotsford 1 @ Ontario 2 (Mar 3 2024) Final
Abbotsford 2 @ Ontario 1 (Feb 21 2024) Final SO
Ontario 1 @ Abbotsford 2 (Jan 17 2024) Final
Ontario 4 @ Abbotsford 3 (Jan 16 2024) Final
Ontario 0 @ Abbotsford 6 (Dec 21 2023) Final
Ontario 2 @ Abbotsford 5 (Dec 20 2023) Final
Abbotsford 3 @ Ontario 5 (Oct 29 2023) Final
Storylines To Watch For
Whose Goal Is It Anyway? A Reprise
The biggest story for the Canucks has to be the ongoing saga of their parent club’s goaltending situation. Is Demko done for the year? Will he work his way back? How long will DeSmith be out? If Tolopilo returns, does he automatically take the net from Sawchenko, who seems to have earned it fair and square? What about Silovs, who was Abbotsford’s guy in the regular season? They might have to wait for Vancouver to be eliminated from Stanley Cup contention before that happens, but there are a lot of moving parts to consider for both Vancouver and Abbotsford before we can even begin to predict who’ll be in their net in Game 1 of the series against the Reign.
How Special Are Special Teams?
After leading the league in PPGs this regular season, the Reign stumbled against the Condors on the man advantage. Can they figure it out? The Canucks killed off nine of the 11 power play opportunities the Eagles had in their opening round, and one of those goals was on a 6 on 4 with the Eagles’ goalie pulled in an attempt to force overtime. The Canucks outscored the Eagles 9-6 in 5 on 5 play during the series, so getting into an offensive track-meet at even strength might not be to the Reign’s favour.
Reign To Watch
Erik Portillo was the MVP of the first round for the Reign. For them to have any hope of success against the Canucks in Round 2, he needs to be as good as he was against Bakersfield or better. In the regular season series between these two teams, he was 3-2-0-1, allowing 17 goals in 6 games and had a .906 sv%.
The Reign need to find a way to get Samuel Fagemo going. All season long, there have only been three occasions where he’s been held goalless for three games or more in a row, most recently between January 12 and February 9, where he went four games in a row without a goal. After that stretch, he went scoreless in 8 of the remaining 23 games, and scored 23 goals, including two hat tricks and six multi-goal nights. Fagemo is a goalscorer. He’ll figure it out, and when he does, the Canucks need to watch out. He had four points in five games vs the Canucks during the regular season, including three goals.
Brandt Clarke was a point a game player in their opening series, despite being tossed from the last ten minutes of Game 1. He was their best defencemen this season, was arguably one of the top five or six defencemen in the entire AHL, and is only 20 years old. He had two points in three games vs the Canucks this season.
Canucks To Watch
Sheldon Dries was the leading scorer in the regular season series between these two teams, with nine points in six games, including five goals. With 52 points in total in the regular season, almost 20% of his total points came against the Reign, and over 20% of his 29 goals came in the season series as well. He led the Canucks in goalscoring this season, and he’ll burn the Reign in this postseaosn series if they let him get hot.
This was Aatu Raty’s first full season in Abbotsford, and it was something of a coming out party for him, as he scored almost 20 goals, broke the 50 point mark, and smashed his own career high in points by almost 50%. He’s got a goal and an assist through three postseason games this year, and is still only 21 years old. He’ll be a player to watch for a long time coming. He had three assists in eight games vs the Reign this season.
Only one player has more shots this postseason than Max Sasson: Dylan Guenther of the Tuscon Roadrunners, with 14. Sasson had 11 shots over 3 games for the Canucks vs the Eagles, more than anyone on either team, and though he only registered two assists and no goals, much like Fagemo (10 shots over 2 games in the first round), if he gets going, he’s going to be tough to stop. Sasson had 18 goals in 56 games for the Canucks this season. Three of them came in the six games he played vs the Reign.
Bold Predictions
Bold Prediction for the Reign
It didn’t come true last series, so I predict it again this time. TJ Tynan has more assists than any other player has points.
Bold Prediction for the Canucks
Zach Sawchenko gets a shutout in the first game they play in Abbotsford (Game 3).
Series Prediction: The Canucks make it tougher on the Reign than their first round opponent, but the Reign look like they’re rolling. Ontario wins in 5 games.
The Reign and the Canucks face off in Game 1 of this best of 5 series on Wednesday May 1 in Ontario. The game starts at 7pm PT.
