The opening round in the Central Division bracket of the 2024 Calder Cup Playoffs wasn’t quite what was envisioned back in February. Texas Star’s offensive attack, led by Logan Stankoven and Mavrik Bourque, was terrorizing Central goaltending. The Manitoba Moose was simply trying to keep its head above water long enough to survive. Fast forward to April, where Grand Rapids and Rockford zoomed past the Stars with searing hot streaks. Meanwhile, Manitoba turns the tables around. They have not only secured their position but are looking to jump on a vulnerable Texas team.
If the season results and the past weekend are any indicator, the coming best-of-three-game series is a nightmare scenario for the Stars. However, when the playoffs start, everything goes back to zero. With that being said, let’s see who has the advantage in this series.
Regular Season Recap
Despite the early season success the Stars saw, there was one constant thorn in their side – Manitoba. The Moose began the season series with two overtime wins in October. Meanwhile the Stars were able to even it up with two regulation wins. Manitoba poured it on the second half of the season, winning each of the four contests with an impressive 6-2 record and at least 6 goals scored in 3 of the last 4 contests.
Perhaps most impressive was how Manitoba was able to shut down and frustrate Bourque, the leading point scorer in the AHL. Over the eight-game series, Manitoba limited Bourque to just one goal and five assists. Bourque’s ten penalty minutes ranked second on Texas in the series.
On the other side, Manitoba had NINE players scoring over a point per game against Texas. Jeff Mallott led the way with four goals and seven assists for 11 points over seven appearances. Winnipeg Jets prospects Brad Lambert, Nikita Chibrikov and Ville Heinola also each recorded over a point per game and look to lead the charge against the Stars.
Both teams ended their season with the series locked in, though they still had a two-game set to finish out in Texas. Manitoba, looking to set the tone for the upcoming series, went into Cedar Park and manhandled the Stars by scores of 8-3 and 4-1. While the points meant nothing in the standings, it probably gave Texas head coach Neil Graham quite a bit to think about.
Character Series
For much of the season, Texas was one of the top dogs in the league. They seem anything but the offensive juggernaut that they looked to open the year. For one, Stankoven was called up to Dallas in February and will aid the parent Stars on their quest for the Stanley Cup. Goaltender Matthew Murray and defenseman Derrick Pouliot were also added to the Dallas roster on Saturday. That almost effectively waves the white flag for Texas.
This is where the Stars are going to have to dig deep. Yes, it’s difficult to lose such key contributors to the squad when you’re looking to rebound from difficult months of hockey. Simplify the game, and don’t give Maniotba anything easy. If the Moose get a couple, stay in the game. Veterans like Curtis McKenzie and Alex Petrovic will have to lead by example and establish a mental fortitude. Otherwise, this will be a quick series.
Special Teams, Special Players
Despite missing Stankoven for the last two months and change, the Stars still sport the AHL’s top-scoring power play at 21.9%. Manitoba, however, isn’t far behind at 21.1% – good for fourth in the league. The kicker in this section? Both teams come into this series with bottom-five penalty-killing units by percentages.
The question isn’t so much who can score more on the man advantage but who can get timely stops when they need it. Both teams have their offensive studs like Texas’ Matej Blumel or Manitoba’s Kyle Capobianco who can hammer the puck into the net with the extra space. The teams will instead need to rely on the likes of Fredrik Karlstrom and Dominic Toninato to break up the potent power plays and give their teams room to breathe and fight another day.
Texas was the least penalized team in the AHL. Limiting those opportunities is just as important as playing well in those penalty-killing roles. We’ll see if Texas can remain disciplined after being taken to the woodshed this past weekend.
Depth Charges
The name of the game is depth. Both teams finished out the season just around .500 with two wildly different paths. As the season went on, the depth of both teams – or lack thereof – became apparent. Manitoba seemed to get stronger throughout its lineup, while Texas struggled to remain relevant in the Central race. In the end – it’s going to be an unsung hero on the Moose (let’s say Nicholas Jones) sending them onto the next round to take on the Milwaukee Admirals.
Prediction: Texas Stars vs. Manitoba Moose
Moose in 3
